دانشگاه تبریز دانش خاک و گیاه 3092-6106 مقالات آماده انتشار 2026 08 16 The Role of Climate Change in Qualitative and Quantitative Land Suitability for Selected Oilseeds in Bonab and Maragheh Counties نقش تغییر اقلیم در تناسب کیفی و کمّی اراضی شهرستان‌های بناب و مراغه برای دانه‌های روغنی منتخب 1 15 21744 10.22034/sps.2026.72417.1039 FA زهرا صداقی نظام آباد گروه علوم و مهندسی خاک، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران. علی اصغر جعفرزاده گروه علوم و مهندسی خاک، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران. حسین رضائی گروه علوم و مهندسی خاک، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران. Journal Article 2026 05 13 <strong>Background and Objectives </strong><br />Nowadays, the maintenance of food security is one of the most critical issues facing human societies. Climate change poses a significant risk to the agricultural sector, threatening the food security of human communities. Consequently, assessing the climatic conditions of lands constitutes a constructive scientific measure within the planning process for optimal land use. In recent decades, the production of oilseeds, alongside other agricultural crops, has been increasingly threatened by climate change. Therefore, it is imperative to implement appropriate measures to safeguard oilseed production, as with other agricultural products, in order to address this threat. One scientific and practical strategy for adapting to climate change is the evaluation of climatic suitability, which aids in proposing an optimal cropping pattern. The present study aims to contribute to the sustainable production of oilseeds-specifically sunflower, soybean, rapeseed, sesame, and safflower-under changing climatic conditions by examining the trend of changes in land climate suitability within the counties of Bonab and Maragheh from the 1990s to the 2010s.<br /><strong>Materials and Methods</strong><br />This research work was completed based on climatic data extracted from synoptic meteorological stations located within the study area, encompassing the Bonab and Maragheh counties in East Azerbaijan province. Using geographical positions of the meteorological stations within the study area, climatic zones were delineated using the Thiessen polygon method. Evaluation of climatic suitability was conducted using both qualitative and quantitative methods for the three decades (the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s) based on the climatic requirements of the target crops. These requirements included total rainfall and average temperature over the growing period, as well as during the vegetative, flowering, and maturation stages, in addition to the average daily minimum and maximum temperatures of the coldest month. Since the study focused exclusively on irrigated cultivation, only temperature-related climatic requirements were considered for the climatic suitability evaluation. The qualitative climatic suitability evaluation was completed using the square root parametric method, while the quantitative evaluation employed the FAO model through the calculation of potential yield. Finally, based on the climatic suitability classes determined for the studied crop types over the different decades, relevant maps were generated using ArcMap 10.3, and final discussions and management implications were derived from the output maps. Furthermore, statistical comparisons of the quantitative land suitability evaluation results were conducted using Duncan's multiple range test at a 5% probability level in SPSS 26.<br /><strong>Results</strong><br />Throughout the study area, four land units were identified based on the allocation of a zone to each station according to the Thiessen method. An overview of the climatic statistics from the stations in the study area indicates a general trend of decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature over time. Based on the qualitative land suitability evaluation, for all three decades under review in the study area, the climatic suitability class for sunflower, soybean, sesame, and safflower was highly suitable (S1), while for rapeseed it was unsuitable (N). Although climatic conditions have changed over time-becoming more favorable for safflower, sesame, and rapeseed, and less favorable for soybean and sunflower-these changes were not sufficient to change the climatic suitability class. The results of the impact of climate change on the suitability of land utilization types, as evaluated by the quantitative method-summarized through statistical analyses the potential of land utilization types yields in the study area-indicated a significant effect of climate change on land climate suitability over time. Based on potential yield, it can be concluded that except for rapeseed and soybean, for which the 2010s and the 1990s, were the optimal periods in terms of climatic suitability respectively, the 2000s provided the most favorable climatic suitability conditions for the other utilization types. Beyond noting the trend of climate change's impact on potential yield, the slope of its temporal variation reveals that rapeseed is the most affected by climatic changes, while sesame is the least affected.<br /><strong>Conclusions</strong><br />The different climatic rating and varying potential yield for different utilization types demonstrated their differing climatic requirements, a finding that can serve as a foundation for designing an optimal cropping pattern in the study area. Furthermore, the temporal slope of climate rating and potential yield, indicating the degree of susceptibility of each utilization type to climate change, may offer an additional strategy to inform cropping pattern design aimed at adapting to climate change with minimal damage. The summary of the climatic evaluation in this study demonstrated that rapeseed falls into the unsuitable (N) climatic class and exhibits the steepest slope in potential yield variation. Therefore, it is recommended that this crop not be included in the portfolio of utilization types cultivated in the region. Although, under the predefined assumptions of climate change concerning its negative consequences for agriculture, a decline in land climatic suitability was anticipated for all utilization type over time, instances of improved climatic suitability were observed. This indicates that, when summarizing the impact of climate change on utilization type suitability, all climatic factors involved in the growth of the respective plant must always be considered. Another factor that may challenge the hypothesis of a purely negative effect of climate change on agricultural crop suitability is the recognition that a negative trend in one climatic factor among a plant's climatic requirements may sometimes lead to improved conditions with respect to other parameters. Hence, in such studies, the combined effect of climatic factors and their interactions should determine the net effect of climate change on climatic suitability for agricultural crops. Although the qualitative climatic suitability evaluation could not clearly demonstrate the role of climate change in this study due to the absence of a change in suitability class despite shifting climatic conditions over time, the quantitative evaluation provided a more precise perspective by enabling statistical comparison of climate-influenced potential yield over time. Therefore, it is recommended that qualitative and quantitative land suitability evaluation always be conducted in tandem, so that each method, leveraging its respective capabilities, can compensate for the shortcomings of the other in final conclusions aimed at low-cost, low-risk managerial decision-making. تغییر اقلیم از مخاطرات بخش کشاورزی است که امنیت غذایی جوامع بشری را تهدید می‌کند. پژوهش حاضر با بررسی روند تغییر تناسب اقلیمی اراضی شهرستان‌های بناب و مراغه برای دانه‌های روغنی آفتابگردان، سویا، کلزا، کنجد و گلرنگ طی دهه‌های 70 تا 90 شمسی سعی دارد گامی در راستای تولید پایدار این محصولات در بستر تغییر اقلیم بردارد. برای این کار، بر اساس موقعیت جغرافیایی ایستگاه‌های هواشناسی منطقه مورد مطالعه، جداسازی پهنه‌های اقلیمی با روش تیسن انجام شد. ارزیابی تناسب اقلیمی محصولات هدف برای دهه‌های 70، 80 و 90 شمسی طبق روش‌های کیفی پارامتریک ریشه دوم و کمّی پهنه‌بندی زراعی-اکولوژیکی در هر واحد اقلیمی انجام گردید. ترسیم نقشه‌های خروجی و مقایس‌های آماری بر اساس نتایج روش‌های تناسب اراضی به‌ترتیب با استفاده از نرم‌افزارهای Arc Map 10.3 و SPSS 26 انجام شد. بر اساس روش ارزیابی کیفی تناسب اراضی برای هر سه دهه و هر دو منطقه موردِ بررسی، کلاس تناسب اقلیمی برای آفتابگردان، سویا، کنجد و گلرنگ وضعیت خیلی مناسب (S1) و برای کلزا نامناسب (N) بود. نتایج ارزیابی کمّی تناسب اراضی بر مبنای مقادیر تولید پتانسیل، تأثیر معنادار  تغییر اقلیم بر تناسب اقلیمی را نشان داد. همچنین، برای کلزا و سویا دهه‌های 90 و 70 و برای سایر تیپ‌های بهره‌وری دهه80 بهترین تناسب اقلیمی را داشتند. تغییر اقلیم با توجه به نیازهای اقلیمی متفاوت انواع تیپ‌های بهره‌وری و شرایط کشت آن‌ها اثرات معنادار منفی و گاهاً مثبت بر تناسب اقلیمی دانه‌های روغنی در محدوده مورد مطالعه داشت. تلفیق نتایج ارزیابی کیفی و کمّی تناسب اقلیمی، در معرفی الگوی کشت مناسب برای هر منطقه به تصمیم‌گیران بخش کشاورزی کمک خواهد کرد. http://sps.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_21744_a794194a27c102b2852e37d5387b558b.pdf