اثر تغییر اقلیم بر عملکرد و ریسک عملکرد محصولات زراعی منتخب استان کردستان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

2 ماری سکلودوسکا- کوری، فاندازیون انی انریکو ماتتی، میلان، ایتالیا.

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم به‌عنوان یکی از مخاطره‌انگیزترین متغیرهای ساختاری در نظام‌های زیستی-اقتصادی، بخش کشاورزی را که وابستگی شدیدی به شرایط آب و هوایی دارد، به‌طور جدی تحت تأثیر قرار داده است. این مطالعه با هدف تحلیل تأثیر نوسانات پارامترهای اقلیمی بر عملکرد و ریسک عملکرد محصولات زراعی استراتژیک شامل گندم آبی، گندم دیم، جو آبی، جو دیم و نخود دیم در استان کردستان انجام شد. برای دستیابی به این هدف، از رهیافت تابع تولید تصادفی جاست و پاپ و با استفاده از روش داده‌های پانلی برای شش شهرستان عمده تولیدکننده این محصولات استفاده گردید. نتایج حاصل از برآورد مدل‌ها نشان داد که متغیرهای اقلیمی اثرات متفاوتی بر عملکرد و ریسک این محصولات دارند؛ به‌طوری که بارندگی دوره رشد و میانگین دمای کمینه دوره رشد اثر مثبت و معناداری بر افزایش عملکرد کلیه محصولات داشتند. در مقابل، افزایش دمای بیشینه و سرعت باد در دوره رشد، تأثیر منفی و معناداری بر کاهش عملکرد داشتند. از جنبه ریسک، بارندگی به‌عنوان یک عامل ریسک‌کاهنده و سرعت باد و دمای بیشینه به‌عنوان عوامل ریسک‌افزای عملکرد شناسایی شدند. بیشترین حساسیت ریسک عملکرد نسبت به تغییرات بارندگی در محصول جو آبی و بیشترین حساسیت نسبت به سرعت باد در محصول جو دیم مشاهده شد؛ به‌طوری که کشش ریسک عملکرد جو آبی نسبت به بارندگی 1.89- (عامل ریسک‌کاهنده) و نسبت به سرعت باد 6.72 (عامل ریسک‌افزا) برآورد گردید. در مجموع، یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که اثرپذیری و ریسک‌پذیری محصول جو (هم آبی و هم دیم) در مقابل تغییر اقلیم بیشتر از گندم و نخود دیم است. بر این اساس، برای مدیریت ریسک و افزایش تاب‌آوری بخش کشاورزی استان کردستان، پیشنهاد می‌شود در الگوی کشت منطقه، برای مدیریت ریسک اقلیمی، توسعه کشت گندم نسبت به جو در اولویت قرار گیرد و برای اراضی مستعد کشت جو، تمهیداتی نظیر استفاده از رقم‌های مقاوم به خشکی و باد و احداث بادشکن در نظر گرفته شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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