Effects of Climate Change on Yield and Yield Risk of Selected Crops in Kurdistan Province

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.

2 Marie Sklodowska-Curie, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan, Italy.

Abstract

Introduction

Climate change poses a significant threat to global agricultural systems, with profound implications for food security and rural livelihoods. This study focuses on Kurdistan Province, a key agricultural region in western Iran, where the production of strategic crops such as wheat, barley, and chickpea is highly vulnerable to climatic variability. The research aims to quantitatively analyze the impact of key climatic parameters-including precipitation, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity - on both the yield and the yield risk of selected irrigated and rainfed crops. Understanding these relationships is critical for developing adaptive strategies and risk management policies to enhance the resilience of the agricultural sector in the face of changing climate conditions.



Materials and Methods

The study employs a stochastic production function approach, specifically the Just-Pope framework, which allows for the separate estimation of the effects of inputs on mean yield (production function) and on yield variance (risk function). Panel data from six major agricultural counties in Kurdistan Province (Bijar, Saqqez, Qorveh, Divandarreh, Kamyaran, and Sanandaj) were utilized. The data included annual crop yield statistics for irrigated and rainfed wheat, irrigated and rainfed barley, and rainfed chickpea, alongside monthly climatic variables from local weather stations. Various functional forms (linear, linear-quadratic, Cobb-Douglas, transcendental) were tested. The appropriate panel data estimation method (pooled, fixed effects, or random effects) was selected using the F-Limer test, Breusch-Pagan LM test, and Hausman test.



Results and Discussion

The empirical results revealed distinct and significant impacts of climatic factors on yield and yield risk. Cumulative growing season precipitation and minimum temperature had a consistent positive effect on the yield of all studied crops. Conversely, maximum temperature and average wind speed during the growing season exerted significant negative effects on yield. Regarding yield risk, precipitation acted as a risk-reducing factor, particularly for irrigated barley and chickpea. In contrast, maximum temperature and wind speed were identified as risk-increasing factors. The highest sensitivity to precipitation variability was observed in irrigated barley, while rainfed barley exhibited the greatest sensitivity to wind speed. Comparative analysis of risk elasticity indicated that barley (both irrigated and rainfed) is generally more vulnerable to climatic fluctuations compared to wheat and rainfed chickpea.



Conclusions

The findings underscore the substantial and differential influence of climate change on the productivity and stability of major crop systems in Kurdistan Province. The higher climatic risk associated with barley cultivation suggests a strategic shift in cropping patterns toward more resilient crops like wheat could mitigate farmers' exposure to climate-induced losses. Furthermore, adaptive measures such as the adoption of wind-resistant cultivars, the implementation of windbreaks, and the development of climate-informed agricultural extension services are strongly recommended. This study provides an empirical basis for policymakers and agricultural planners to enhance climate risk management and promote the sustainable adaptation of the agricultural sector in the region.

Keywords

Main Subjects

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Journal of Soil and Plant Science
Volume 36, Issue 2
March 2025
Pages 19-39

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